The accounting and consulting firm Deloitte puts out a semi-annual magazine called the Deloitte Review. The most recent issue is quite interesting and covers topics ranging from open source innovation to Chinese manufacturing to the growth of solar energy.
But the article that jumped out at me is The Great Transformation, which covers 8 U.S. economic trends that could not last forever. Each trend is described briefly and illustrated with excellent charts. The 8 trends are:
- Private sector debt levels could not keep growing
- Trade deficits could not continue to deepen
- Foreign appetite for U.S. investments is not sustainable
- Consumer spending as a % of GDP could not continue to grow
- Consumer savings could not continue to shrink
- Home ownership levels were not sustainable
- Financial services share of corporate profitability will have to rebound
- Low energy prices are not sustainable
The article argues that recession and related economic turmoil is creating a fundamental realignment between the U.S. government and the private sector. Key quote:
“Going forward, the U.S. government is going to have a much larger role with the issues of governance, green economics, energy and transparency taking center stage.”
The article also forecasts increased government spending, taxes and regulation.
We’re starting work on an forecast of what the post-recession economy looks like for small businesses. And these economic shifts all will have an impact on the future of small business.